Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.554766 20.126749 21.855619 23.914914 26.323733 29.081540 32.521677
2024-10-06 16.072471 18.121937 20.535905 23.647642 27.645680 32.753972 40.041246
2024-10-13 14.422989 16.722921 19.573136 23.481671 28.912734 36.574750 49.073297
2024-10-20 13.072540 15.462470 18.535846 22.952969 29.487383 39.521014 58.090913
2024-10-27 12.506043 15.101831 18.572950 23.825129 32.175608 46.409117 77.745725
2024-11-03 11.721093 14.350706 17.961317 23.624811 33.117022 50.674146 95.714631
2024-11-10 11.139505 13.811150 17.569985 23.670160 34.437834 56.124195 122.705601
2024-11-17 10.672961 13.384156 17.284701 23.820283 35.952843 62.638667 164.142604
2024-11-24 10.257411 12.991492 17.003134 23.921301 37.382997 69.701896 227.859737
2024-12-01 9.816986 12.527849 16.565816 23.687690 38.080450 75.310964 311.242247
2024-12-08 9.477995 12.189300 16.291355 23.699363 39.296141 83.237888 487.191747
2024-12-15 9.128122 11.811277 15.921295 23.486599 39.964094 89.996841 803.236865
2024-12-22 8.790124 11.437286 15.538326 23.221748 40.503945 97.064137 1643.750679
2024-12-29 8.492335 11.109185 15.208010 23.021816 41.175191 105.508114 7345.958854
2025-01-05 8.230733 10.823147 14.927451 22.887220 41.995073 115.748215 NaN
2025-01-12 7.927649 10.457568 14.489176 22.391048 41.753461 120.822906 NaN
2025-01-19 7.867696 10.470755 14.696045 23.231979 45.452535 154.165233 NaN
2025-01-26 7.649011 10.219583 14.426448 23.042125 46.111752 169.978111 NaN
2025-02-02 7.480495 10.041284 14.273594 23.086568 47.526209 196.224705 NaN
2025-02-09 7.337184 9.897037 14.171650 23.230926 49.330593 233.893845 NaN
2025-02-16 7.195933 9.749677 14.054512 23.327956 51.031934 280.949251 NaN
2025-02-23 7.020067 9.538146 13.808375 23.104082 51.542856 316.593663 NaN
2025-03-02 6.884860 9.388844 13.668688 23.115312 52.958643 383.979969 NaN